Chu Lai
Forecast-Then-Optimize Deep Learning Methods
Jiang, Jinhang, Wu, Nan, Liu, Ben, Feng, Mei, Ji, Xin, Srinivasan, Karthik
Time series forecasting underpins vital decision-making across various sectors, yet raw predictions from sophisticated models often harbor systematic errors and biases. We examine the Forecast-Then-Optimize (FTO) framework, pioneering its systematic synopsis. Unlike conventional Predict-Then-Optimize (PTO) methods, FTO explicitly refines forecasts through optimization techniques such as ensemble methods, meta-learners, and uncertainty adjustments. Furthermore, deep learning and large language models have established superiority over traditional parametric forecasting models for most enterprise applications. This paper surveys significant advancements from 2016 to 2025, analyzing mainstream deep learning FTO architectures. Focusing on real-world applications in operations management, we demonstrate FTO's crucial role in enhancing predictive accuracy, robustness, and decision efficacy. Our study establishes foundational guidelines for future forecasting methodologies, bridging theory and operational practicality.
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Early Detection of Misinformation for Infodemic Management: A Domain Adaptation Approach
Mao, Minjia, Zhao, Xiaohang, Fang, Xiao
An infodemic refers to an enormous amount of true information and misinformation disseminated during a disease outbreak. Detecting misinformation at the early stage of an infodemic is key to manage it and reduce its harm to public health. An early stage infodemic is characterized by a large volume of unlabeled information concerning a disease. As a result, conventional misinformation detection methods are not suitable for this misinformation detection task because they rely on labeled information in the infodemic domain to train their models. To address the limitation of conventional methods, state-of-the-art methods learn their models using labeled information in other domains to detect misinformation in the infodemic domain. The efficacy of these methods depends on their ability to mitigate both covariate shift and concept shift between the infodemic domain and the domains from which they leverage labeled information. These methods focus on mitigating covariate shift but overlook concept shift, rendering them less effective for the task. In response, we theoretically show the necessity of tackling both covariate shift and concept shift as well as how to operationalize each of them. Built on the theoretical analysis, we develop a novel misinformation detection method that addresses both covariate shift and concept shift. Using two real-world datasets, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations to demonstrate the superior performance of our method over state-of-the-art misinformation detection methods as well as prevalent domain adaptation methods that can be tailored to solve the misinformation detection task.
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- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Immunology (1.00)